2023 Recap, 2024 Predictions, Farcaster/Turpentine Updates

2023 Recap, 2024 Predictions, Farcaster/Turpentine Updates

January 23, 2024

This week on the MOZ podcast Dan and Erik discuss the potential impact of a Trump win in 2024, the appeal of populism, the impact of AI on the next generation of startups, and an update from Farcaster and Turpentine.

Check the full episode on Youtube:

SUMMARY

The shift in tech media towards more open and diverse discussions, the rise of prediction markets, and the potential impact of AI tools on the economy are significant trends to watch in the tech industry.

• 00:00 📈 The shift in tone and intellectual diversity on social media, particularly Twitter, has led to a change in power dynamics and relevance of voices, with a decrease in cancel culture and a potential impact on DEI policies in companies.

  • Elon's takeover of Twitter in 2023 led to a shift in vibe and intellectual diversity on the platform, with unbanned accounts and the ability to have multiple opinions on previously taboo topics.

  • The shift in tone and intellectual diversity on social media, particularly Twitter, has led to a change in the power dynamics and relevance of certain voices.

  • Silicon Valley's luxury beliefs are no longer as influential, companies are less likely to cater to extreme ideologies, and cancel culture has shifted in the tech industry.

  • The speaker discusses the shift in societal attitudes towards controversial figures and topics, noting a change in the Overton window and a decrease in cancel culture.

  • Claudine Gay's resignation and the spotlight on universities may lead to companies implementing DEI policies, but the market will ultimately determine their impact.

  • Shopify is a global e-commerce platform that helps businesses sell, and Netsuite by Oracle offers a Cloud Financial system to streamline business operations.

• 15:51 📰 Cancel culture and anti-Semitism are shaping societal perspectives, with Jews having a disproportionate influence, and the speaker predicts escalating conflict between wokeness and anti-Semitism, as well as the potential impact of prediction markets on news reporting.

  • Cancel culture is being used as a tool by both sides, with the right not being against it and anti-Semitism in the US has led to a shift in perspective, giving Jews permission to be anti-woke.

  • Jews have a disproportionate influence on society, particularly in relation to the Israel issue and the rising sympathy for the Palestinian cause among younger people.

  • The speaker predicts that the conflict between wokeness and anti-Semitism will continue to escalate, and discusses how certain issues have become wedge issues, particularly for those who identify as Jewish.

  • The speaker discusses the split within the Democratic party, the impact of social media, and the potential challenges for Biden in the 2024 election.

  • Prediction markets are gaining volume and prominence, with the potential for real money to be made, and the speaker is optimistic about their potential impact on news reporting.

  • The speaker discusses the legality of certain activities and mentions workarounds for Americans to interact with contracts directly.

• 29:56 📈 Prediction markets gain cultural relevancy, crypto interest sparked by Bitcoin paper, companies facing legal challenges on race discrimination, and the need to address systemic inequalities earlier in life.

  • Trump's market prediction in New Hampshire went from 70/30 to 93% after the Iowa trouncing, and smart people like Adam D'Angelo and Patrick Hson trust the wisdom of prediction markets for future predictions.

  • Robin Hansen and Tyler Coen's model for creating an automated market maker underpins all of defi, with the concept originally geared toward prediction markets and rooted in academic research.

  • Interest in crypto was sparked by a paper on Bitcoin use in prediction markets, and the speaker predicts that prediction markets will gain cultural relevancy and become a trendy thing in 2024.

  • Brian Armstrong's decision to not discuss politics in the office in 2020 was met with backlash, illustrating the acceleration of extremism and the shift in reaction to it from 2020 to 2023.

  • Companies are facing controversy and legal challenges related to affirmative action and discrimination based on race, with the Supreme Court reaffirming that it is illegal to discriminate based on race.

  • The speaker discusses the challenges of anti-market measures and the belief that good ideas and execution will ultimately be funded in the market, while also addressing the need to address systemic inequalities earlier in life rather than trying to make up for them later.

• 39:28 🎙️ The podcast discusses the impact of Biden's presidency, the shift in political dynamics, and predicts a less significant impact of the 2024 election due to fatigue and legislative limitations.

  • The podcast is high quality and appeals to people because it features practitioners who understand tech and can provide accurate information, unlike some reporters who misinterpret company success.

  • The political dynamics have shifted as Biden's mental capacity is questioned, leading to a reevaluation of political allegiances and the impact of social media on shaping the narrative.

  • The speaker discusses the shift of influential commentators to Twitter, the potential impact of Trump's re-election on media dynamics, and the uncertainty surrounding Biden's potential replacement.

  • The speaker predicts that the impact of the 2024 election will be less significant than expected due to fatigue, potential legislative limitations, and a shift in public concerns.

  • Trump and Biden's presidencies have shown that it doesn't really matter who is in the White House, as there is an established oligarchy within the bureaucratic system of Washington that runs things.

  • The speaker discusses the issue of people not taking real problems seriously due to the overreaction to past issues, and emphasizes the need for an orderly immigration process and an increase in educated immigration.

• 54:09 📈 Trump's actions are fueling populism, affecting both left and right, with Democrats alienating poor white voters and union members shifting towards the Republican side.

  • In a bureaucratic organization, the CEO has the power to fire employees, but in the government, there is gridlock and limited power to make changes.

  • Trump's actions are accelerating the rise of populism, leading to the possibility of populist candidates on both sides in the 2028 election.

  • The trend of feeling left behind by the globalized elite is affecting both the right and left, with issues such as factory closures, declining community organizations, and drug problems in both rural and urban areas.

  • Democrats' identity politics alienates poor white voters and they should remove that component from their platform.

  • Americans, especially those on the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum, still believe in the American dream and the possibility of achieving wealth, which is a unique aspect of American capitalism and consumerism that the Democratic party has failed to address.

  • Union members are shifting towards the Republican side due to a dislike of being lectured on identity politics, and the Democrats may struggle in the future if they continue to focus on extreme left ideologies.

• 01:02:26 📈 Focus on economic policies and de-emphasize identity politics to appeal to the multi-racial working class, with potential interest rate cuts affecting the stock market and tech companies in 2024.

  • The speaker discusses the economic views of different political figures and their impact on welfare and government spending.

  • The speaker discusses the importance of de-emphasizing identity politics and focusing on economic benefits to appeal to the multi-racial working class in politics.

  • Abortion and immigration are key issues for the Republican party, with the former being a winning issue and the latter being the single strongest issue to get people excited.

  • Focus on economic policies, cheaper housing, and higher quality education to appeal to voters, while de-emphasizing identity politics and embracing abundance in healthcare and education.

  • The speaker predicts that the biggest issue of 2024 will be the election, with potential interest rate cuts affecting the stock market and tech companies, leading to a more moderate valuation for startups.

  • Companies will become more efficient and leverage AI tools to replace traditional roles, leading to a reset in Silicon Valley's understanding of excellence and a focus on operational efficiency.

• 01:15:22 📈 Farcaster is focusing on growing its user base and developing new features to tap into unmet consumer needs, with a goal of achieving significant scale and success.

  • The speaker discusses changes in foreign policy, AI, and business updates, with a focus on the challenges and growth of the forecaster business.

  • The focus is on growing daily active users and finding new iterations of core features to tap into unmet consumer needs, with the goal of moving from a science experiment to a scalable social platform.

  • Understanding consumer needs and offering new experiences and products that they may not even know they want is key to successful product development.

  • Farcaster is focusing on growing its user base to attract developers to build killer apps, similar to the iPhone's app ecosystem.

  • The speaker discusses the value of building on top of Farcaster and the importance of having a strong user base for venture scale success.

  • The speaker plans to focus on experimenting with organic behaviors on Farcaster to drive growth, rather than relying on external marketing efforts, and is determined to achieve significant scale and success.

• 01:23:21 📱 Twitter's new "communities" feature, plans for expansion of Terpentine, focus on mobile apps, transition to a tech company, and the importance of attention in building businesses.

  • Twitter's new feature "communities" is similar to subreddits, and the speaker plans to do an AMA episode and discusses the progress of Farcaster and Turpentine.

  • The speaker discusses their plans to expand their media company, Terpentine, by launching new products and formats, hiring analysts, and building a data business and investing practice.

  • Invest more in mobile apps for smaller projects, as most people use their phones for leisure and need a push notification to engage with content.

  • The speaker discusses the transition from a media company to a tech company, the importance of building a direct relationship with the audience, and the potential for high leverage in building niche software.

  • Attention is the key to building businesses, with examples of creators using their audience to create new products and the value of having people's attention for business success.

  • The speaker expresses gratitude for the support and success of Moment of Zen, and looks forward to future endeavors.

INSIGHTS

Key insights

• 📰 The shift in tone and intellectual diversity in tech media is remarkable, with previously censored opinions now being more openly discussed and accepted.

• 🔄 The Overton window has extended, allowing for more open and controversial discussions without immediate cancellation.

• 💰 Prediction markets are gaining prominence, allowing people to make real money by having a better model for the world.

• 🔄 The core underpinning of how defi works is rooted in academic research around prediction markets, specifically geared toward prediction markets.

• 📈 Prediction markets gaining cultural relevancy and creating a shelling point in reflexivity could be the next big trend in crypto.

• 💰 The deflationary component of AI tools capturing the value of what used to be a human in terms of Revenue will be significant.

• 🔄 The challenge is to figure out iterations of core primitives that tap into new needs for users, moving away from being a clone of existing platforms.

• 🏆 Striving for scalable growth and impact, not satisfied with participation trophies in the venture game.